THM has a question for you. If two horses racing against each other both finished third in their previous race, how can we determine which horse has the stronger piece of form to their name? It remains a challenge for punters to find a perfect solution, but there are certain elements to always consider when trying to differentiate between strong and weak pieces of form. Here's a THM starter pack to get you going.
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Runners & Beaten Distances
Form figures on racecards could indicate that two horses both finished in third position in their previous race, but this information on its own is relatively meaningless. It's crucial to discover the number of runners in the race, and the distance the horse finished behind the winner. Ultimately, how close was the horse to winning? The Horse's Mouth individual result pages have all of this - you will find how far a horse was beaten by in the "Margin" column, where the number against each horse represents how many lengths they were behind the winner. If a horse came third in a race of fifteen runners, beaten by less than a length, this is likely to be much stronger form than if there were only four runners and it was beaten by ten lengths. Dig deeper guys.
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Race Class
This is a simple one. There's an exceptionally strong correlation between the Class of race and the quality of the horses that ran in that race. Horses of certain ratings are restricted to run in specific Race Classes. Handicap races make up the majority of the horse racing calendar, with Class 1 being for the highest rated and Class 7 for the lowest. Performing well in a race filled with better quality opponents is always preferred. You can view how horses have performed in the Race Class of an upcoming race on the "Class" tab on THM racecards.
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Race Detail
The "Where" and "When" factors. The time and place of the race is usually a strong indicator for the expected form strength. The larger racecourses (the likes of Ascot, Newbury, Newmarket and Sandown for the flat season) typically offer greater prize money, resulting in more competitive fields consisting of runners from the top stables. You can be sure a Saturday fixture shown live on ITV will be targeted with a trainer’s best hope for success. Perhaps the same can't be said for an evening mid-week fixture at a smaller racecourse? All handicaps of the same Class are not equal. In time you should recognise a Class 2 handicap at a top tier racecourse will produce much stronger form lines.
To be continued...
THM.