Blog

Climbing The Handicap

20 Dec, 2024

Double Powerful certainly has to be considered as one of the most improved horses of the season. It's incredible to think that he began the year with an Official Rating of just 78. After recording his first victory at Fakenham back in March, he went on to notch up a six-race win streak, rising a total of 43lbs in the handicap. See his entire progress this season on the unique Horse Page.Today Double Powerful competed in the Howden Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle at Ascot with an Official Rating of 121 and was ridden by regular jockey, Dylan Johnston. In a...

Newbury in November

29 Nov, 2024

There's a solid racecard at Newbury today and punters are trying to work out how well handicapped Galop De Chasse is in the Coral Handicap Chase (14:30). If we accept at face value his victory last year over Kandoo Kid at this Course and Distance, many believe he could easily be a stone ahead of the handicapper.Galop De Chasse and Kandoo Kid were both rated 123 when they clashed in a Handicap Chase last year, with the Venetia Williams charge just getting the better of Paul Nicholls' Kandoo Kid. It's worth noting that there was a yawning 30-length gap back...

Cheltenham November Meeting

16 Nov, 2024

Cheltenham truly is the home of jump racing and the 3-day November meeting continues in full force this weekend. The Saturday Racecard is flush with both Premier Handicap and Graded action; in this newsletter we'll begin to dissect both. It's a long road to the festival in March, but it starts here.Punters have always considered Course form at Cheltenham to be of upmost importance. Horses face a unique test here: the undulating nature of the track, big fences and a stiff uphill finish will push horses to their limits. The significance of Cheltenham Course form again came to the fore...

Exeter Haldon Gold Cup Day

8 Nov, 2024

High quality racing at Exeter will be shown live on ITV4 today, the feature race being the Haldon Gold Cup Handicap Chase (14:25). This is a tough early season handicap to unpick given the main protagonists are all returning from more than 200 days off the track. It's a small yet competitive field of five that go to post for the £60,000 prize and it's difficult to gauge who will be fully tuned up for their return. Punt responsibly.The feature race is preceded by the Future Stars Silver Bowl Novices' Chase (13:50) where we essentially have a match race between...

Ascot Champions Day Roundup

20 Oct, 2024

Qipco British Champions Day did not disappoint, living up to its name in spectacular style. All three of the big early favourites duly obliged and by 3:30pm bookmakers were on the ropes - a sight we all love to see. Kyprios, Kalpana and Charyn were all comfortable winners of their races, returning at odds of 8/11, 10/3 and 13/8 respectively. Accumulators were brewing.It was then time for the Champion Stakes, the race of the day. It had everything. Calandagan, the 6/4 favourite, missed the break and found himself trapped up the inside with nowhere to go. With favourite backers around...

Ascot Champions Day - Stayers Up First

19 Oct, 2024

As the horse racing flat season draws to an end, a final crescendo is served up at Ascot in the form of Qipco British Champions Day. There are four Group 1 races to get stuck into - we've got competitive fields embedded with both rematches and new eagerly awaited clashes. Here we'll cover the opening race on the card, with a little help from THM Racecards; providing valuable insights as always.Unsurprisingly, given the time of year, it'll be soft ground at Ascot, conditions not unfamiliar to the majority of the stayers in the Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (13:20)....

The 2-year olds Go To War - Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes

28 Sep, 2024

Aidan O'Brien has dominated the betting market in many of the Group 1s this season and it's a familiar story again today in the Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (3:00). O'Brien is double-handed with Whistlejacket (8/13) and Ides Of March (4/1), with Ryan Moore siding with the former, top-rated on 115. Ides Of March and Shadow Of Light (6/1) are joint next-best having both achieved a rating of 108. At THM we remain strong advocates for making rational betting decisions, well-informed by the statistical insights readily available on our racecards. Punters will invariably prioritise certain form study insights differently – perhaps...

Introducing THM's Class Move Indicator

13 Sep, 2024

THM is always on the improve! We've now launched our newest feature in the form of the Class Move Indicator.It now takes nothing more than a swift glance to identify whether each horse is moving up (^), down (⌄) or racing in the same (-) class compared to its previous race. This means there's zero manual work required from you. Check out this new addition to the Class tab on all The Horse’s Mouth racecards..Moving UpProgressive horses climbing through the handicap ranks will be forced to move up in class following Official Rating increases imposed by the handicapper. This will...

Horse Racing Form Strength - Part 2

6 Sep, 2024

We're back with our next chapter of horse racing form study. Last time we covered the basics; this is a slight rise in class. It's not unusual for a number of well handicapped or talented horses to run in the same race. When this happens, multiple next time out winners will emerge from this specific piece of form.During the flat season, there are always a number of "hot" maiden or novice races that produce strong form lines to follow. For example, let's take a look at the below Novice Stakes race at Newmarket in June this year:.Now if we delve...

Ryan Moore On Top At The Ebor

22 Aug, 2024

Ryan Moore and Aidan O'Brien teamed up with three rides on Day 1 of the York Ebor Festival and came away with a hat-trick of wins. The first leg of the 14/1 "Ryan Moore treble" was his easiest winner of the day. The Lion In Winter bounced out of the gates and comfortably made all from the front to land the Acomb Stakes. Moore never had to get serious in the saddle and his mount is now favourite for next year's Derby. A lot can happen between now and then but he's done nothing wrong so far.Los Angeles was up...

Horse Racing Form Strength - The Basics

21 Aug, 2024

THM has a question for you. If two horses racing against each other both finished third in their previous race, how can we determine which horse has the stronger piece of form to their name? It remains a challenge for punters to find a perfect solution, but there are certain elements to always consider when trying to differentiate between strong and weak pieces of form. Here's a THM starter pack to get you going..Runners & Beaten Distances Form figures on racecards could indicate that two horses both finished in third position in their previous race, but this information on its...

Why does the Ground, Course & Distance actually matter when studying form in horse racing?

9 Aug, 2024

Ground conditions should always be a factor in a punters decision making. There are a number of reasons why certain horses perform better on certain ground types. Smaller framed horses with low skimming running actions are typically more at home on firmer ground surfaces, whereas bigger horses, with high knee and stomping actions can find running on firm ground painful; but come into their own when the ground is heavy and the mud is flying. Finding a horse that's about to run in ideal underfoot conditions is always advised.The expression 'Horses for Courses' is commonly used amongst punters and it...

Glistening Glorious Goodwood

1 Aug, 2024

Glorious Goodwood is more than living up to its name this week; the sumptuous weather coupled with high quality horse racing has been lighting up the Sussex racecourse. There's been a cauldron of action to enjoy throughout the opening few days of the festival: some top class performances, electrifying speed figures, a dramatic stewards' inquiry and other hard luck stories for which notorious Goodwood is oh so famous. There's plenty more to come before Saturday evening too. Kyprios stole the show on Tuesday in the Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup, blitzing his rivals in the scorching heat and establishing himself head...

King George Saturday Roundup

28 Jul, 2024

Aidan O'Brien has been uncharacteristically critical about the ground conditions at Ascot this weekend, questioning whether any stretch of the course was indeed good to firm. He then attributed Auguste Rodin's lacklustre performance in the King George to the softer conditions. Given the Ballydoyle pacemakers set off at a ferocious gallop, it seemed a strange tactical decision to keep Auguste Rodin so close to the pace, especially if the ground conditions were in fact softer than described? Anyway...The keyboard warriors on X have fired plenty of criticism at Kieran Shoemark in recent weeks, shaming him for some unsatisfactory rides. But...

Buick - The King of Newmarket

13 Jul, 2024

Jockey William Buick is no stranger to the Winners' Enclosure, but even by his lofty standards he had a day to remember this Saturday at the Newmarket July Cup meeting. Anyone checking the horse racing results this evening will see the familiar sight of Buick and trainer Charlie Appleby combining in sumptuous fashion to win 3 of the first 4 races on the card.The first, Desert Flower, put up an impressive display on debut despite looking inexperienced through the early stages. Buick never had to get serious on the well backed 5/2 shot and the pair won as they liked....