Aidan O'Brien has dominated the betting market in many of the Group 1s this season and it's a familiar story again today in the Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (3:00). O'Brien is double-handed with Whistlejacket (8/13) and Ides Of March (4/1), with Ryan Moore siding with the former, top-rated on 115. Ides Of March and Shadow Of Light (6/1) are joint next-best having both achieved a rating of 108. 

At THM we remain strong advocates for making rational betting decisions, well-informed by the statistical insights readily available on our racecards. Punters will invariably prioritise certain form study insights differently – perhaps focusing on Course form, Ground, Distance, Average Speeds, the list goes on. This is a game we love to play, and play it we will. In this feature Group 1 race there are a number of different angles to consider. 

We have Whistlejacket, Shadow Of Light and Defence Minister (16/1) all with Course wins to their name. A nice start.

Our Class Move Indicator shows us that the bookmakers are happy to take on the lightly-raced last time out winners, Defence Minister and Dash Dizzy (28/1). Both are on the upgrade but stepping up into Class 1 company for the first time. The remainder of the contenders though were pitched into Class 1 company last time out.

Although we like to see the best horse win, these young horses aren't robotic machines. A crucial factor in terms of today’s conditions is that it's going to be soft ground at Newmarket. Typically, young horses on soft ground equals unpredictability. Despite the bright sunshine forecast it's still going to be really hard work for these 2 year-olds. 

So what do the THM Ground stats tell us? At first glance it might seem not much. But look more closely and this singular piece of data nevertheless has great significance. Whistlejacket is the only runner in the field that's ever run on the soft conditions forecasted. He won. Although only a standalone piece of data, this can provide comfort in abundance to favourite backers who know for sure that Whistlejacket is surely capable of handling the conditions today; something that can’t really be said for any other runner in the field.

Best of luck.