The Coral-Eclipse (3:35) at Sandown usually provides an opportunity to witness the best of the 3-year old generation taking on the older horses. Sadly this year the representation from the older group is pretty woeful and consequently the betting market is dominated by the youngsters, most notably by the impressive Derby winner. We all know who that is!
Today's short priced favourite City Of Troy (3/10) looked spectacular when careering away with the Epsom Derby 5 weeks ago and was given the highest accolades from trainer Aidan O'Brien in the post race interviews. He's 10lbs clear of all his opponents today so this looks like a penalty kick on paper. He shoots, he scores. That's what everyone seems to think anyway.
The current second favourite for the race is the reopposing Dancing Gemini (15/2) who has an 8-length defeat to turn around with the favourite from their clash at Epsom. Dancing Gemini seemed to fade a little in the dying embers of that race so should benefit from the drop back in trip to 1m2f. But the form book says he has a lot to find.
City Of Troy's Derby success was stunning either way you look at it. He gets top marks for the visual impressiveness, but what does the speed gun say? The race was run on Good To Soft ground and he recorded an Average Speed figure of 55.02kph. We can compare this to the previous winner of the race on similar ground conditions; this being Adayar in 2021. It turns out Adayar was faster that day, posting an Average Speed figure of 55.53kph. It's probably too early to be questioning this year's Derby form, but something to consider.
So, are there any chinks in the City Of Troy armour? His flop in the 2000 Guineas seems a distant memory now but it does mean he's not unbeaten. Ghostwriter (9/1) finished ahead of him that day. Pundits have highlighted that City Of Troy having his first run at a right-handed track is a question mark. He's also never run at this 1m2f distance before. Are we clutching at straws? Realistically speaking, if he runs to his Derby winning form and barring accidents, he wins.
The contradicting weather forecasts mean any amount of rain could fall between now and race time. We advise to wait for as long as possible before making any ground based betting decisions. Ghostwriter would want the rain to stay away, as is the case for Jayarebe (12/1). Ghostwriter has run to a good level of form, but it's potentially Jayarebe who still looks the most progressive after recording a brave win in a Group 3 at Royal Ascot. Both should offer some resistance against the O'Brien hotpot if they get a decent surface to race on.
Best of Luck!