After a largely disastrous Cheltenham Festival for punters, with a handful of so-called "bankers" falling foul of the Cheltenham obstacles, I think it's safe to say that some decent flat racing will be welcomed by many. Whilst still having one eye on conclusions to the jumps season at Aintree and Punchestown, tomorrow brings us the grand opening of the British flat season at Doncaster. There are 8 races on tomorrow's card, with one of the first feature handicap races of the season, The Lincoln, kicking off at 15:35. At the moment it's a 22 runner field and as always it is set to be a fiercely competitive contest.
Midnight Gun (11/2) and Thunder Run (11/2) are currently jostling for outright favouritism. This is no surprise given they hold two of the highest ratings in the race at 101 and 100 respectively. Higher rated horses have performed well in this race in recent years, and have then gone on to perform at Group level. The only horses with higher ratings than the aforementioned are Galeron and Sean who are both rated 102. Coincidentally they are both trading at the same 25/1 price, justified by poor runs last time out. Galeron was dropped 7lbs and Sean 5lbs in the handicap as a result of these most recent efforts. Midnight Gun and Thunder Run have much more progressive profiles. Nonetheless, 8 of the last 10 winners of the race have been rated between 99 and 102 and these four horses are the only ones who tick that box.
The ground is set to be Good To Soft tomorrow, which shouldn't pose a problem for the majority of the field. Only 5 horses - Orandi (10/1), Toimy Son (14/1), Galeron (25/1), Sean (25/1) and Alpha Crucis (25/1) are yet to record wins on these conditions. Likewise, most the field are well-versed over the 1m trip and have recorded wins. The most notable distance form is held by Thunder Run who is striking at 60%, having won 3 of his 5 attempts. The same can't be said for the Doncaster track, with only 1 horse (and last year's winner), Mr Professor (16/1) recording a win at the course. That said, roughly half the field have never run here. Mr Professor will be looking to be the first horse to win back to back Lincolns since 1958 which would be some feat.
It's always worth taking a look at our Avg. Speed tab where you can see how a horse's average speed in its previous 4 races compares to the THM standard average for races run in those specific conditions. Last time out there were some impressive average speeds posted, with 4 horses running over 2kph faster than the corresponding standard averages. Oliver Show (14/1) takes the prize, running a massive 3.13kph faster, although this was on the AW at Southwell. The next best on offer is Midnight Gun who ran 2.26kph faster than the standard average, which importantly was at the Doncaster track over a 1m trip. He seems to have a lot in his favour.