Tomorrow is the 2nd day of the July Newmarket Festival and we have the first Group 1 action – the Falmouth Stakes. It's a 1m race for fillies and mares. The 3 year olds carry 9st0lbs and the 4 year olds carry 9st9lbs.

Cindarella’s Dream and January are currently battling it out for favouritism, trading at 9/4 and 5/2. Crimson Advocate is close behind at 3/1, with Running Lion at 10/1 and the other 4 horses at bigger prices.

Topping our THM Score last time out is Crimson Advocate, who posted an 812 when winning the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot. This day she beat Cindarella’s Dream who went off the 5/4 favourite with Crimson Advocate being 9lbs behind on official ratings. This was Crimson Advocate’s career best performance, and she has posted improving scores run on run.

Digging into Cindarella’s Dream score profile some more, we can see her career best was in her 2nd to last run, where she posted an 830. Importantly, this was achieved when winning at Newmarket, on Good To Firm ground and over 1m1f. Horses proven over slightly further is a positive, particularly with the stiff uphill finish on the Newmarket July track.

This score is only 2nd to Running Lion’s 850 posted at Longchamp on Very Soft ground last year but she’s yet to reach these heights this season. She put in a brave front running performance at Royal Ascot and was 2 and a half lengths behind Crimson Advocate and half a length behind Cindarella’s Dream when finishing 4th.

January posted a 774 in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot which is a race restricted to 3 year olds and came 3rd behind Cercene and Zarigana. Both the Duke Of Cambridge and the Coronation Stakes are run over a mile on the same part of the track at Royal Ascot which means we can draw some nice speed comparisons.

Coincidentally, January and Crimson Advocate clocked the exact same time, and were therefore both 0.99kph faster than the THM Standard average for races run over a mile on the good to firm ground at Ascot. January was carrying 3lbs less at Royal Ascot but tomorrow she’ll be carrying a more significant 9lbs less.

There’s not much to separate the top 4 from an average speed perspective last time out, but the standout is Atsila. She ran 1.64kph faster than the THM Standard average when coming 7th in the Irish 1000 Guineas. On this day she beat January who came 8th.