Friday of Glorious Goodwood brings us the best sprint race of the festival - it’s a 5f dash for the line, and Asfoora (11/4) is back for more after narrowly losing out to Big Evs in last year’s contest. She’s the favourite tomorrow, and probably justifiably so – we can see she posted a score of 845 when coming 2nd in the race last year and this is certainly the standout score of the field given it was achieved over course and distance.
As it’s a short sprint, we like to use our Average Speed Analysis. This shows us how each horse’s average speed compared to the THM standard average in their previous 4 races. From an initial glance, Asfoora’s performance last time out seems somewhat mediocre, barely running much faster than the THM standard average. However, if we look at her other previous runs, we can see she usually posts solid speed figures.
Sorting on the +/- TO STD AVG column last time out allows us to see which horses ran the fastest compared to their respective standard averages. The big standout is Spartan Arrow (28/1) who ran a mammoth 5.11kph faster than the THM Standard Average for races run at Chantilly, on Good ground and over 5f. We do have to tread carefully with speed figures posted in France, as the standard averages tend to be quite slow. But take nothing away from him as he was certainly flying that day! The next best is Celandine (22/1) who was 2.72kph faster, although this was achieved in a 6f race. Clarendon House (50/1) takes 3rd spot, and importantly this was over 5f.
After the torrential rain this afternoon, ground conditions are now Heavy which leaves us very little to go off in terms of form. Most of the field are yet to race on this going, and those who have are yet to win or place. Hopefully the sun which is forecast can dry it out a touch.
Asfoora and Big Mojo bring solid course form to the table from last year’s festival - Asfoora came 2nd in this race and Big Mojo claimed victory in the Group 3 Molecomb stakes which Lady Iman won yesterday. Other winning course form on offer is from Khaadem (18/1) , who is 2 from 2 at the track, Spartan Arrow, who is 1 from 1 and JM Jungle (25/1) who is 1 from 2.