Who wins the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes at Newmarket?

One of the highlights of the flat racing calendar, the 3 day Newmarket July Festival, kicks off tomorrow with many Royal Ascot runners returning to action and looking to build on their seasons so far.

The feature race of day 1 is the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes, a Group 2 race run over 1m4f for horses aged 3 years and older. The 3 year olds carry 8st 10lbs and the 4 year olds carry 9st 8lbs. So let’s get stuck in.

The Newmarket track has a long straight, typically giving a fair and honest race, but it does undulate in places so course form is preferred. All but Palladium (3/1), who is unraced there, have winning form at the track. The standouts are Ghostwriter (13/8) who is 2 from 3 and Arabian Crown (15/2) is 1 from 1.

The ground is set to be Good To Firm tomorrow and the only horse with winning form on this going is Ghostwriter, who is 2 from 4. Palladium, Wimbledon Hawkeye (4/1) and El Cordobes (11/2) seem to prefer a bit more juice in the ground with all their wins coming on softer ground. Wimbledon Hawkeye and El Cordobes have managed to place on Good To Firm though. Arabian Crown is untested and will be having his first run out on this ground tomorrow.

The only horse who was won over the trip before is El Cordobes who has won 1 of his 3 attempts. All other horses will be looking to get off the mark and finally prove they can win over the 1m4f furlong trip tomorrow.

Now onto our THM Score. Ghostwriter oozes consistency and has posted over 800 on his last 6 runs. His best scores were achieved last year and earlier this year, posting 856 and 851 respectively. However, his form seems to have dipped in his last 2 runs with his scores dropping to the low 800’s.

Palladium has only had 3 runs so is much more lightly raced than the others, but has shown improving scores run on run. We can see his best score was on Good To Firm ground at Ascot last time out, where he broke the 800 barrier for the first time.

Wimbledon Hawkeye, El Cordobes and Arabian Crown are yet to post scores into the 800’s, but they have all posted solid scores well into the 700’s. Wimbledon Hawkeye is the only 3 year old in the field so is carrying 12lbs less than all his rivals tomorrow, which could sway things in his favour.

William Buick brings the best recent jockey course form to the table, with a 27% strike rate at Newmarket in the last 3 months. He is taking the saddle of El Cordobes tomorrow. Trainer Charlie Appleby has the best recent trainer form, with a strike rate of 35% at Newmarket in the last 3 months. Charlie has 2 runners in the field, El Cordobes and Arabian Crown.